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Prediction Markets vs Operators: Federal Rails, State Books, and the New Economics of U.S. Betting
CFTC-regulated prediction venues now compete directly with state-licensed sportsbooks, offering national reach, exchange-style pricing and a lighter federal compliance regime. This feature maps the legal split (federal pre-emption vs state police powers), details operator strategies (fight, partner, or own the rails), unpacks the infrastructure (clearing, custody, oracles), and converts regulatory milestones into an actionable trigger matrix. It sets a minimum controls parity


DraftKings buys Railbird: a federally regulated bridge into prediction markets
DraftKings has acquired Railbird Technologies and its CFTC-designated exchange, Railbird Exchange, in a move that drags the US sportsbook wars onto a new board: federally regulated prediction markets. The company says it will launch DraftKings Predictions , a mobile app that lets customers trade event contracts on real-world outcomes in finance, culture and entertainment “in the coming months.” Financial terms were not disclosed. Deal timing. DraftKings announced the transa


The Invisible Sportsbook — Why Usability (Not Odds) Becomes the Next Moat
When odds and promos converge, the last moat is comprehension. The operators who compress time‑to‑confidence, not time‑to‑click, will own intent, trust, and margin. If odds and promos are commodities, what exactly are you competing on? Here’s the uncomfortable answer: time to confidence. Not time to click. Not time to bet. The operators that turn a visitor’s half‑formed intent into “I know what I’m doing and why” will own the only durable spread left in a market where prices
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